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Dear friends and colleagues,

187,525 in Orleans Parish in August. We've gotta admit, we were surprised by how low that number is.

Back in January, the City's Emergency Operations Center survey came up with 181,000 for a total population. Since then, estimates as high as 230,000 have been tossed around. We didn't know how much the New Orleans population had grown, but with the number of houses rebuilt, public schools opening, and the growing lines and crowds that we've observed since January, we were expecting to see a noticeable increase reflected in the numbers. 187,525 seemed really low compared to the estimated 181,000 total population in January.

Turns out, we were comparing apples to oranges.

Orleans Total Population Estimates

Sources: Emergency Operations Center (2006); Claritas (2006); Gordon, 2006; Rigamer, 2006.

After reviewing the methods of how all of these estimates were created, and consulting with the data experts at the US Centers for Disease Control, we learned that the right population numbers to compare the new Louisiana Health & Population Survey to are the household population -- not the total population.

Household population surveys do not include people living in group quarters, but total population surveys do. With all of the college dormitories, nursing homes, hospitals, and other group quarters* in New Orleans, the household survey conducted in August does not count a good chunk of the population. Before the storm, we had more than 17,000 folks living in group quarters. We don't know how many there are now, but we know for sure it's more than zero.

So, if you want to track the progress of our repopulation, here are the numbers to go by.... apples to apples.

Orleans Household Population Estimates

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (2004); U.S. Census Bureau (2005); U.S. Census Bureau (2006); LPHI (2006)

An increase in the household population of New Orleans from 158,353 in January to 187,525 in August -- now, that's believable.

To see the household population estimates for Orleans and nearby parishes, as well as demographics estimates from this new household survey for categories such as age, race, ethnicity, income, homeownership, etc., go to www.gnocdc.org and follow the link for the "Orleans, Jefferson, Plaquemines & St. Bernard Household Surveys."

And be sure to check out the link called "What numbers can I compare these with?" so that you're always comparing apples to apples!

If you get confused about what's comparable to what, don't worry. You can always check with your fruity friends at the Data Center :^)

-- The Data Center team at Knowledge Works
(Allison Plyer, Denice Warren, Joy Bonaguro and Charlotte Cunliffe)

P.S. We've also posted the new Katrina Index from the Brookings Institution, and updated our open childcare and public schools maps. You'll find them all at gnocdc.org

* Here is a description from the Census of the non-household (or group-quarters) populations. "All persons not living in housing units are classified as living in group quarters. These individuals may be institutionalized, e.g., under care or custody in juvenile facilities, jails, correctional centers, hospitals, or nursing homes; or they may be residents in noninstitutional group quarters such as college dormitories, group homes, or military barracks."

Citations

Claritas (2006). New Hurricane Katrina-Adjusted Population and Household Estimates! Retrieved June 27, 2006, from Claritas web site http://www.claritas.com/claritas/Default.jsp?ci=1&pn=hurricane_katrina_data

Emergency Operations Center, City of New Orleans (2006). Rapid Population Estimate Project. Retrieved June 27, 2006, from GNOCDC Web site http://www.gnocdc.org/reports/NOLAPopEstimate.pdf

Gordon, R. (2006, August 23). Entergy data shed light on N.O.'s population. Times Picayune, p. 1.

Louisiana Public Health Institute, Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals, Louisiana Recovery Authority (2006, Oct 6). 2006 Louisiana Health and Population Survey Expanded Preliminary Results. Retrieved October 10, 2006 from LPHI Web site http://www.popest.org

Rigamer, G. (2006, August). New Orleans One Year After Katrina. Presented at the New Orleans One Year Forward conference August 25, 2006, New Orleans, LA.

U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates Program (2004, July 1). Official Series. Retrieved October 10, 2006 from Census Web site http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/emergencies/impacted_gulf_estimates.html

U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates Program (2005, July 1). Official Series. Retrieved October 10, 2006 from Census Web site http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/emergencies/impacted_gulf_estimates.html

U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates Program (2006, January 1). Special Population Estimates for Impacted Counties in the Gulf Coast Area. Retrieved October 10, 2006 from Census Web site http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/emergencies/impacted_gulf_estimates.html

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The Community Data Center is a product of Greater New Orleans Nonprofit Knowledge Works and is supported in part by Baptist Community Ministries, United Way for the Greater New Orleans Area, the Greater New Orleans Foundation, Louisiana Disaster Recovery Foundation and the Annie E. Casey Foundation. Numbers Talk is an electronic newsletter announcing new resources on information use for New Orleans area nonprofits.